Home / Group F / Tunisia vs Netherlands
Group F · Match 58 · Thu, Jun 25
Arrowhead Stadium Watch: Memphis Depay
Updated with latest team news· Locks at kickoff
75%
Tunisia win
15%
Draw
10%
Netherlands win
Most likely scorelines · Poisson model
0-218%
0-315% our pick
0-115%
Prediction Updates & Analysis
2026-06-150-3medium confidence
Initial evidence-based prediction from official standings, form and team news.

Netherlands enter as clear favorites, though their opening 2-2 draw with Japan exposed defensive vulnerabilities. Tunisia were overwhelmed 5-1 by Sweden, suggesting a significant gulf in quality. Given these results, Netherlands' attacking talent led by Memphis Depay should exploit Tunisia's frail backline, likely securing a comfortable victory. The lack of injury news leaves both sides at full strength, though Tunisia's morale may be low after the heavy defeat. Expect Netherlands to control possession and break down Tunisia's defense, leading to multiple goals. A 3-0 scoreline reflects the expected dominance without being overly aggressive, aligning with historical patterns in such mismatches. While Netherlands' draw tempers absolute certainty, Tunisia's poor form makes an upset unlikely. The confidence is medium due to limited team-specific information.

  • Tunisia's 5-1 loss to Sweden highlights defensive fragility
  • Netherlands' 2-2 draw with Japan shows offensive strength but defensive questions
Tunisia · L
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Standings

#TeamPWDLGF:GAPts
1Sweden11005:13
2Netherlands10102:21
3Japan10102:21
4Tunisia10011:50
VS

More Group F Predictions

Missed
Group F · Match 11FT 2–2 missed
Netherlands
2-0
Japan
1 75%X 18%2 7%
No significant team news updates; prior prediction stands.
Correct
Group F · Match 12FT 5–1 called
Sweden
2-0
Tunisia
1 65%X 25%2 10%
No significant team news for either side; prior prediction stands. Sweden's set-piece dominance and physical edge with Isak remain decisive.
Group F · Match 35Sat, Jun 20
Netherlands
2-1
Sweden
1 50%X 30%2 20%
Netherlands enter as slight favorites based on overall squad talent, but their opening 2-2 draw with Japan exposed defensive vulnerabilities. Sweden, fresh from a dominant 5-1 win over Tunisia, arrive with confidence and a potent attack led by Isak and Kulusevski. The group dynamics favor Sweden, who can defend deep and counter, while Netherlands must push for a win to avoid pressure. Both sides are likely to score, making a tight contest probable. A 2-1 scoreline reflects Netherlands' slight edge in quality, but Sweden's form warrants a higher chance of a draw or surprise loss. The match is expected to be open, with goals on both ends, but the Dutch should have enough to edge it late.
Group F · Match 36Sat, Jun 20
Tunisia
0-1
Japan
1 60%X 25%2 15%
Tunisia opened with a heavy 5-1 defeat to Sweden, exposing critical defensive flaws. Japan's 2-2 draw against the Netherlands, a top side, demonstrated resilience and attacking potency. With Japan technically superior and carrying momentum, they are clear favorites. Tunisia will likely defend deep and seek counters, but their attack looked blunt against Sweden. Japan's quick transitions, orchestrated by Kubo, can unlock Tunisia's backline. A tight, low-scoring contest is expected, with Japan edging it by a single goal. However, Japan's defense showed some vulnerability, leaving room for an upset if Tunisia can capitalize on set-pieces. The draw remains a plausible outcome if Tunisia park the bus effectively.
Group F · Match 57Thu, Jun 25
Japan
1-1
Sweden
1 30%X 35%2 35%
Japan's 2-2 draw with a strong Netherlands side is a better performance indicator than Sweden's 5-1 demolition of minnows Tunisia. Both teams enter with offensive momentum, but the lack of further squad or form data makes a draw the most calibrated outcome. Sweden may edge possession, yet Japan's proven ability to score against top defenses suggests a tight, balanced contest. 1-1 reflects both teams finding the net, consistent with their opening matches. Confidence is low due to sparse, early-tournament evidence.
Predictions are generated by an AI model from historical and public data, for entertainment and informational purposes only. Not betting advice.