Home / Group D / Turkey vs United States
Group D · Match 59 · Thu, Jun 25
SoFi Stadium Watch: Christian Pulisic
Updated with latest team news· Locks at kickoff
65%
Turkey win
25%
Draw
10%
United States win
Most likely scorelines · Poisson model
1-111%
0-110%
1-210% our pick
Prediction Updates & Analysis
2026-06-151-2medium confidence
USA's dominant 4-1 win over Paraguay and the shift to a home venue at SoFi Stadium justify a higher win probability compared to the prior call, which assumed a road environment and less emphatic form.

United States enter this match in commanding form after thumping Paraguay 4-1, displaying fluid attacking football and clinical finishing. Turkey, in contrast, were thoroughly outplayed by Australia in a 2-0 defeat, revealing vulnerabilities at the back and a lack of cutting edge. SoFi Stadium provides a de facto home advantage for the Americans, who will feed off the energy of a partisan crowd. With qualification at stake, the USA's pressing and quick transitions should again prove decisive. Turkey possess individual quality but appear disjointed; they may find the net from a set piece, yet the USA's overall cohesion and superior match sharpness point to a narrow but deserved victory.

  • USA's attacking momentum after 4-1 win over Paraguay
  • home advantage at SoFi Stadium
  • Turkey's defensive frailties exposed in 2-0 loss to Australia
Turkey · L
#

Standings

#TeamPWDLGF:GAPts
1United States11004:13
2Australia11002:03
3Turkey10010:20
4Paraguay10011:40
VS

More Group D Predictions

Correct
Group D · Match 4FT 4–1 called
United States
2-1
Paraguay
1 60%X 25%2 15%
United States, as hosts, hold a clear edge in quality over Paraguay. Expect the Americans to control possession and create chances through Christian Pulisic. Paraguay will rely on counters but lack the firepower to match. A 2-1 win for the USA is most likely.
Missed
Group D · Match 6FT 2–0 missed
Australia
1-2
Turkey
1 20%X 25%2 55%
Turkey's attacking talent, led by Hakan Çalhanoğlu, should overwhelm Australia's defense. The Socceroos are organized but lack individual quality. Turkey will win 2-1, with Australia grabbing a consolation goal late.
Group D · Match 32Fri, Jun 19
United States
2-1
Australia
1 60%X 25%2 15%
The United States enters this Group D clash with home advantage and an emphatic 4-1 win over Paraguay, while Australia also impressed with a 2-0 victory against Turkey. Both sides top the group with 3 points, making this a pivotal match. The US, ranked higher and playing in Seattle, will leverage their pace and technical edge, but Australia's disciplined defensive structure and counter-attacking threat suggest a tighter contest than initially projected. Without lineup news, we assume full-strength squads. Christian Pulisic remains the US star creator. Australia's ability to frustrate opponents, as seen in their clean sheet, lowers the probability of a blowout. Consequently, a narrow 2-1 US win is more calibrated, with draw chances acknowledged. Confidence is medium pending team announcements.
Group D · Match 31Fri, Jun 19
Turkey
1-1
Paraguay
1 35%X 35%2 30%
Both teams lost their Group D openers — Turkey 2-0 to Australia, Paraguay 4-1 to the USA — leaving each on 0 points and needing a result to stay in contention. At a neutral venue (Levi's Stadium, USA), there is no home advantage for Turkey, undercutting the prior 2-1 prediction. Turkey's defeat was less dramatic, but Paraguay's heavy loss suggests defensive issues, though one game is a small sample. No injury or lineup news is available. Given the stakes and the sides' comparable quality, a tight, cautious match is likely. A draw is a plausible outcome, keeping both mathematically alive. Turkey may shade possession, but Paraguay's counterattacking threat — led by Almirón — can punish. Scoreline reflects a balanced contest with limited clear chances. Confidence is low due to minimal evidence; squad announcements could shift probabilities.
Group D · Match 60Thu, Jun 25
Paraguay
1-1
Australia
1 30%X 35%2 35%
Australia enter with confidence after a composed 2-0 victory over Turkey, while Paraguay were outclassed in a 4-1 loss to the USA. Group D standings make this a virtual must-win for Paraguay, but their defensive frailties against the USA suggest vulnerability against Australia's organized side. Given the evidence, Australia are slight favorites, though Paraguay's desperation could lead to a tight contest. A draw is plausible as both sides may cancel each other out in a nervy affair. Star player Miguel Almirón's creativity and pace could unlock Australia's defense, but Australia's collective form gives them the edge.
Predictions are generated by an AI model from historical and public data, for entertainment and informational purposes only. Not betting advice.